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Weather and the Calculated Risk

February 19, 2009 by Scooter in the Sticks 15 Comments

At 5:15 PM when I left my office the Vespa was coated in a glistening sheen of ice. How I got there and what I would do next was a result of calculating risk. Standing by the scooter I could see traffic moving on wet, slushy roads. Heavy skies reduced light levels. With temperatures hovering near freezing and moisture in the air I knew visor fogging would be an issue. My brain was working, trying to calculate my next action.

Weather is predictable to a point. In warm weather unexpected changes in temperature or precipitation are challenges most often met with gear adjustments and minor changes in riding. Unexpected changes in cold weather involve more risk and can’t be overlooked.

I stood outside with the dog in the morning weighing the pros and cons of riding to work. The forecast called for two brief periods of snow or sleet followed by rain later in the evening. The road was dry and the skies looked heavy but no hint of moisture yet. I made the decision to ride to work knowing that it could get worse when it was time to go home. I had my usual backup plan ready — park the scooter in the parking garage and take the bus home.

By mid-afternoon what I thought would be a passing flurry or shower of sleet had developed into something more persistent. I kept an eye on the street outside my window and the progress of traffic. I was already calculating risk. When I walked outside at the end of the day it was decision time.

The accumulation of sleet and snow in the parking lot would be heavier than anyplace on the ride home. It was the safest place to test for traction and just a tiny bit of throttle pushed the rear wheel sideways. Head up, eyes forward, and gentle throttle would be the rule of the ride.

Two stops would slow me down, one for fuel, and a second for cash at the ATM. Walking back to the scooter with a pocket full of money I met a good Samaritan. A neighbor saw the scooter and me and thought I might need a ride home. My experience on the road for the past four years have brought many would be good Samaritans. It’s nice to know that help is available if needed. In this case I politely declined and thanked him for the offer.

By the time I pulled into the driveway it was almost dark, I was tired, and the sleet was still coming down. The ride home was not as bad as other unexpected winter rides but it did require constant attention and adjustment. And more than a few four-wheeled vehicles had to practice patience as I made my way down the road slower than they would like to go. Definitely below the posted maximum speed limit for ideal conditions. Not many people look at those signs that way.

For those of you who have not been caught on the road when snow or sleet appears the pictures look more daunting than the actual ride. I made a careful assessment of the road surface and knew there would be adequate traction, options for ways out of situations with other vehicles, and enough experience to negotiate other hazards on the way.

I suppose the lesson here is to look beyond the image of sleet and snow and really see what is there.

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Filed Under: weather, winter

Comments

  1. Antonio says

    February 19, 2009 at 4:53 pm

    wa…that’s really bad weather, i can’t image if my bike were full ice on..and i still have to move on with such coldy machine. expecially the ice road, that very bad in such condition riding safey back to home.

    but somehow, the most interesting thing about riding, the consentract on riding…handling bike with your own power, once suscess, provde of myself.

    Reply
  2. American Scooterist Blog says

    February 19, 2009 at 6:43 pm

    I have to agree with Antonio. Risk assessment involves a self evaluation of ability. You have to trust yourself or at least believe there’s more chance you’ll succeed than fail. Steve, you’ve got a realistic view of your own abilities and you’ve proven it once again.

    Harv

    Reply
  3. Baron's Life says

    February 19, 2009 at 7:32 pm

    Steve…what’s this all about buddy… are you plain suicidal or just experimenting with pushing the limits… I’ve ridden in similar conditions and never made it. Is your snow more gripping than ours?

    Reply
  4. Heinz N Frenchie says

    February 19, 2009 at 8:15 pm

    Whooooo, that is way more than we can handle. Just reading it makes us shiver. You have got to be one brave fellow. Just seeing the ice on the scooter would be a huge turn off for us. We would have jumped in that friend’s car with gusto. Stay safe, we really enjoy your adventures.

    Reply
  5. John Ashford says

    February 19, 2009 at 9:15 pm

    You certainly have more intestinal fortitude than most. Err on the side of safety.

    Ride on,
    Torch

    Reply
  6. Joe says

    February 19, 2009 at 10:21 pm

    Sigh! I wonder if I’ll ever have that “enough experience” because when there’s a doubt or question about the weather I predictably wimp out on the side of caution. I still don’t even take the car out when the weather’s bad unless it’s a matter of dire necessity. In my line of work the day is usually canceled before I have to venture out so I’ve yet to cut any serious snow teeth on four wheels, never mind two.

    – Joe at Scootin’ da Valley

    Reply
  7. cpa3485 says

    February 19, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    Those are awesome photos. You really demonstrate in pictures and words the decision making process.

    Well done!!

    Reply
  8. Steve Williams says

    February 20, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    Antonio: The pictures show details but not the whole story. I wish I would have posted a picture of the road so you would have seen the conditions there. I believe that often bad weather masks our ability to see the riding conditions. Our brain jumps to “oh now, snow, ice, terrible” without really looking at the road itself.

    That said you still need to, as you rightly point out, be honest in assessing your own ability. We all have limits and I certainly have mine.

    Harv: More chance that I’ll succeed than fail. That’s what I do. The problem is the percentages for each and how accurate my predictions are. Would you ride somewhere if you believed your chances of success were 60 percent? Or 70?? That’s what is occupying my thoughts as I reconsider this ride.

    Baron’s Life: You probably aren’t the only one who thinks this is nuts to ride in. All I can say is that the roads yielded more traction than the pictures may indicate — a combination of temperature, the quality and amount of slush, and a knowledge of what I could do with the Vespa on my specific ride home. I’ll tell you that my biggest concern was not my own ability to keep the rubber side down, but rather the other vehicles abilities to stay in their lanes and not try to rush when conditions weren’t at their best. Another risk to consider.

    Heinz N Frenchie: I’ll be careful. Don’t look for anymore rides like this one. I’m going to apply a lot wider margin of error to the weather forecasts.

    John Ashford: Riding in conditions like this find me hyperaware. Everything is running. It isn’t a matter of courage or fortitude. But you’re right, in the future I need to err in a different direction.

    Joe: You raise an issue that will be the subject of a future post — how much risk to take. If I have any concern about my posts it is that someone will think they should be doing this. I don’t. I believe that as I gain more experience I will make fewer errors in judgment regarding weather and not have to make the decisions like the one in this post.

    cpa3485: Thanks for your kind words. I talked with someone yesterday and they felt that “yeah, you calculated the risk but came up with the wrong answer”.

    I need to consider that statement carefully.

    Reply
  9. Jack Riepe says

    February 21, 2009 at 12:42 am

    Dear Sir;

    Not for me. The top heavy nature of my rig would have had me on the ground in two seconds flat. I wouldn’t trust my legs to hold bike upright either. But I have two friends who have managed it. I guess it takes a great deal more confidence thn I have, or less experience with a bike on top of me.

    Great pictures as usual. I am determined to get more pictures like yours… Shots that calm the soul.
    I went back to look at the previous post with your scooter alongside the creek. I just like the whole idea of it.

    Fondest regards,
    Jack
    Twisted Roads

    Reply
  10. Orin says

    February 21, 2009 at 2:35 am

    Keep in mind, traction under these conditions is about the weight of the vehicle and the tread on the tires. A Vespa GTS weighs in at 326 lbs. Add the weight of the rider and any cargo, and you’ll be packing upwards of 450 lbs. of Road-Hugging Weight. I’ve found the original-equipment Savas have surprising traction in thin layers of loose snow or sleet.

    Of course, you go more slowly; under conditions like you describe, I’m more afraid of the actions of impatient drivers (esp. passing too closely) than my ability to navigate the bike through the conditions at hand. The racing experience comes into play here–you want your control inputs to be deliberate and economical, and you don’t want to be surprised, so you look way ahead.

    Luckily, living in the city means I have many, many alternate routes…

    __Orin
    Scootin’ Old Skool

    Reply
  11. American Scooterist Blog says

    February 21, 2009 at 7:04 pm

    It sounds like you mistook what I wrote. My only thought was that you deduced your own conditions and ability and had the confidence and skill to get home safely. Didn’t mean anything else by it.

    Harv

    Reply
  12. gary says

    February 22, 2009 at 3:49 am

    Nice ride, Steve. You brought back memories of my winter scooter adventures. I’m really happy you decided to continue where I left off. Family life and obligations prevent me from doing that nowadays. Send me an email sometime, if you still have my address. Otherwise, you can still reach me at the blog.

    Ride well,
    =gc=

    Reply
  13. Cliff Yankovich says

    February 22, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Interesting report and replies. It is all good as long as you are not endangering anyone but yourself, eh? I find it oddly rewarding to “beat the weather” sometimes and other times I just let the weather win and take the RAV4 to work.
    Last Saturday was one of those I wanna beat the weather days and I soldiered on in the 4 inches of snow – took me 50 minutes to ride the 11 miles to the store. But I learned some stuff, stayed upright and lived to fight another day!

    Reply
  14. Steve Williams says

    February 24, 2009 at 1:53 am

    Jack: I want to just keep the experience locked away for emergencies and wait for dry roads before riding again. I don’t mind the cold but no need to practice anymore in the slippery stuff.

    And my wife and I were just looking at a cabin for sale a couple miles upstream from where the Vespa was in the picture. We were trying to imagine life in the woods…

    Orin: Way upwards of 450 in my case. Everything you wrote is right on target on how to manage slippery roads. Someday I am going to get out to that city of yours and go for a ride!

    Harv: I’m always misinterpreting but I didn’t find anything wrong with what you wrote. It just got my brain a turning…

    Gary: Great to hear from you! I was looking at Rush Hour Rambling over the weekend and wondering how you were doing. I sent you a message at the old address I had. Hopefully it still works and you’ll get back to me.

    Cliff: I certainly understand the pull to soldier on but I’ve gotten to the stage where I feel content in where my skills are and will file them away for emergencies only.

    At least that’s the plan right now.

    Reply
  15. irondad says

    February 24, 2009 at 2:41 am

    Gary,
    Delighted to see you’re still hanging around. Can’t totally reform, can you? 🙂

    Steve,
    I totally respect your decision. You shared some really wise words in the process.

    It’s vital for us to see what’s really there. The actual truth and not information that’s colored by our preconceived notions.

    I’ll bet you were pretty tired by the time you got home, though. It’s amazing how much riding in bad conditions takes out of us.

    You’ve matured greatly as a rider, Grasshopper. Just don’t forget to have fun, too!

    Reply

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