As the New Year approaches I want to wish all of you the best for 2009. For many this will be a challenging year. During the holiday vacation I have spend more than a few hours sitting at coffee shops looking out the window and wondering what the new year has in store. This picture was made during one of those visits.
I still find myself scooterless. Hoping for some update on the status of the mythic master cylinder for my Vespa GTS I stopped by the dealer today but they are closed until Friday. Perhaps good news will arrive.
And thanks to those of you who have emailed me with suggestions on where to get the part stateside. I know now that other Vespa dealers have master cylinders in stock and that some even pull parts from scooters in inventory in order to get someone back on the road again. That’s a novel idea. But I am content to let things unfold as they will.
At this time of year I review the past year and make plans for the one to come. During this process I received an email from friend and photographer Frank Armstrong that itemized some things that are changing. I’m not sure why but reading through the list helped me put a perspective on where I am today and where I might want to be tomorrow.
24 THINGS ABOUT TO BECOME EXTINCT IN AMERICA
24. Yellow Pages
This year will be pivotal for the global Yellow Pages industry. Much like newspapers, print Yellow Pages will continue to bleed dollars to their various digital counterparts, from Internet Yellow Pages (IYPs), to local search engines and combination search/listing services like Reach Local and Yodle Factors like an acceleration of the print ‘fade rate’ and the looming recession will contribute to the onslaught. One research firm predicts the falloff in usage of newspapers and print Yellow Pages could even reach 10% this year — much higher than the 2%-3% fade rates seen in pastyears.
23. Classified Ads
The Internet has made so many things obsolete that newspaper classified ads might sound like just another trivial item on a long list. But this is one of those harbingers of the future that could signal the end of civilization as we know it. The argument is that if newspaper classifieds are replaced by free online listings at sites like Craigslist.org and Google Base, then newspapers are not far behind them.
22. Movie Rental Stores
While Netflix is looking up at the moment, Blockbuster keeps closing store locations by th e hundreds. It still has about 6,000 left across the world, but those keep dwindling and the stock is down considerably in 2008, especially since the company gave up a quest of Circuit City . Movie Gallery, which owned the Hollywood Video brand, closed up shop earlier this year. Countless small video chains and mom-and-pop stores have given up the ghost already.
21. Dial-up Internet Access
Dial-up connections have fallen from 40% in 2001 to 10% in 2008. The combination of an infrastructure to accommodate affordable high speed Internet connections and the disappearing home phone have all but pounded the final nail in the coffin of dial-up Internet access.
20. Phone Landlines
According to a survey from the National Center for Health Statistics, at the end of 2007, nearly one in six homes was cell-only and, of those homes that had landlines, one in eight only received calls on their cells.
19. Chesapeake Bay Blue Crabs
a formal count. There are only about 120 million crabs in the bay and they think they need 200 million for a sustainable population. Over-fishing, pollution, invasive species and global warming get the blame.
18. VCRs
For the better part of three decades, the VCR was a best-seller and staple in every American household until being completely decimated by the DVD, and now the Digital Video Recorder (DVR). In fact, the only remnants of the VHS age at your local Wal-Mart or Radio Shack are blank VHS tapes these days. Pre-recorded VHS tapes are largely gone and VHS decks are practically nowhere to be found. They served us so well.
17. Ash Trees
In the late 1990s, a pretty, iridescent green species of beetle, now known as the emerald ash borer, hitched a ride to North America with ash wood products imported from eastern Asia . In less than a decade, its larvae have killed millions of trees in the Midwest , and continue to spread. They’ve killed more than 30 million ash trees in southeastern Michigan alone, with tens of millions more lost in Ohio and Indiana . More than 7.5 billion ash trees are currently at risk.
16. Ham Radio
Amateur radio operators enjoy personal (and often worldwide) wireless communications with each other and are able to support their communities with emergency and disaster communications if necessary, while increasing their personal knowledge of electronics and radio theory. However, proliferation of the Internet and its popularity among youth has caused the decline of amateur radio. In the past five years alone, the number of people holding active ham radio licenses has dropped by 50,000, even though Morse Code is no longer a requirement.
15. The Swimming Hole
Thanks to our litigious society, swimming holes are becoming a thing of the past. ’20/20′ reports that swimming hole owners, like Robert Every in High Falls, NY, are shutting them down out of worry that if someone gets hurt they’ll sue. And that’s exactly what happened in Seattle . The city of Bellingham was sued by Katie Hofstetter who was paralyzed in a fall at a popular swimming hole in Whatcom Falls Park . As injuries occur and lawsuits follow, expect more swimming holes to post ‘Keep out!’ signs.
14. Answering Machines
The increasing disappearance of answering machines is directly tied to No 20 our list — the decline of landlines. According to USA Today, the number of homes that only use cell phones jumped 159% between 2004 and 2007. It has been particularly bad in New York ; since 2000, landline usage has dropped 55%. It’s logical that as cell phones rise, many of them replacing traditional landlines, that there will be fewer answering machines.
13. Cameras That Use Film
It doesn’t require a statistician to prove the rapid disappearance of the film camera in America . Just look to companies like Nikon, the professional’s choice for quality camera equipment. In 2006, it announced that it would stop making film cameras, pointing to the shrinking market — only 3% of its sales in 2005, compared to 75% of sales from digital cameras and equipment.
12. Incandescent Bulbs
Before a few years ago, the standard 60-watt (or, yikes, 100-watt) bulb was the mainstay of every U.S. home. With the green movement and all-things-sustainable-energy crowd, the Compact Fluorescent Lightbulb (CFL) is largely replacing the older, Edison-era incandescent bulb. The EPA reports that 2007 sales for Energy Star CFLs nearly doubled from 2006, and these sales accounted for approximately 20 percent of the U.S. light bulb market. And according to USA Today, a new energy bill plans to phase out incandescent bulbs in the next four to 12 years.
11. Stand-Alone Bowling Alleys
10. The Milkman
According to the U.S. De partment of Agriculture, in 1950, over half of the milk delivered was to the home in quart bottles, by 1963, it was about a third and by 2001, it represented only 0.4% percent. Nowadays most milk is sold through supermarkets in gallon jugs. The steady decline in home-delivered milk is blamed, of course, on the rise of the supermarket, better home refrigeration and longer-lasting milk. Although some milkmen still make the rounds in pockets of the U.S. , they are certainly a dying breed.
9. Hand-Written Letters
In 2006, the Radicati Group estimated that, worldwide, 183 billion e-mails were sent each day. Two million each second. By November of 2007, an estimated 3.3 billion Earthlings owned cell phones, and 80% of the world’s population had access to cell phone co verage. In 2004, half-a-trillion text messages were sent, and the number has no doubt increased exponentially since then. So where amongst this gorge of gabble is there room for the elegant, polite hand-written letter
8. Wild Horses
It is estimated that 100 years ago, as many as two million horses were roaming free within the United States . In 2001, National Geographic News estimated that the wild horse population had decreased to about 50,000 head. Currently, the National Wild Horse and Burro Advisory board states that there are 32,000 free roaming horses in ten Western states, with half of them residing in Nevada . The Bureau of Land Management is seeking to reduce the total number of free range horses to 27,000, possibly by selective euthanasia.
7. Personal Checks
According to an American Bankers Assoc. report, a net 23% of consumers plan to decrease their use of checks over the next two years, while a net 14% plan to increase their use of PIN debit. Bill payment remains the last stronghold of paper-based payments — for the time being. Checks continue to be the most commonly used bill payment method, with 71% of consumers paying at least one recurring bill per month by writing a check. However, on a bill-by-bill basis, checks account for only 49% of consumers’ recurring bill payments (down from 72% in 2001 and 60% in 2003).
6. Drive-in Theaters
During the peak in 1958, there were more than 4,000 drive-in theaters in this country, but in 2007 only 405 drive-ins were still operating. Exactly zero new drive-ins have been built since 2005. Only one reopened in 2005 and five reopened in 2006, so there isn’t much of a movement toward reviving the closed ones.
5. Mumps & Measles
Despite what’s been in the news lately, the measles and mumps actually, truly are disappearing from the United States . In 1964, 212,000 cases of mumps were reported in the U .S. By 1983, this figure had dropped to 3,000, thanks to a vigorous vaccination program. Prior to the introduction of the measles vaccine, approximately half a million cases of measles were reported in the U.S. annually, resulting in 450 deaths. In 2005, only 66 cases were recorded.
4. Honey Bees
Perhaps nothing on our list of disappearing America is so dire; plummeting so enormously; and so necessary to the survival of our food supply as the honey bee. Very scary. ‘Colony Collapse Disorder,’ or CCD, has spread throughout the U.S. and Europe over the past few years, wiping out 50% to 90% of the colonies of many beekeepers — and along with it, their livelihood.
3. News Magazines and TV News
While the TV evening newscasts haven’t gone anywhere over the last several decades, their audiences have. In 1984, in a story about the diminishing returns of the evening news, the New York Times reported that all three network evening-news programs combined had only 40.9 million viewers. Fast forward to 2008, and what they have today is half that.
2. Analog TV
According to the Consumer Electronics Association, 85% of homes in the U.S. get their television programming through cable or satellite providers. For the remaining 15% — or 13 million individuals — who are using rabbit ears or a large outdoor antenna to get their local stations, change is in the air. If you are one of these people you’ll need to get a new TV or a converter box in order to get the new stations which will only be broadcast in digital.
1. The Family Farm
Since the 1930s, the number of family farms has been declining rapidly. According to the USDA, 5.3 million farms dotted the nation in 1950, but this number had declined to 2.1 million by the 2003 farm census (data from the 2007 census hasn’t yet been published). Ninety-one percent of the U.S. farms are small family farms.
Steve,
Happy New Year to you and yours.
It’s been too long since I’ve visited with you. I wish we could meet this morning and talk about the coming months over several cups of coffee. I have never before been so curious to see how things develop between now and, let’s say, May 1.
Ride well and safely when you get back on your steel horse.
Tim
Steve, I have two very nice Nikon F3HP 35mm film cameras with motor drives that I’d let go real cheap. 🙁
Well, Happy New Year anyway!
Doug
Happy New Year. I’m from West Virginia the Mona Lisa of Hardwood forests. Ash trees….sad. The American Chestnut (God what a wonderful wood), American Elm, Butternut and now the Ash (along with Butternut another beautiful wood). What have we done? Vanity kills. Importing scooters….good, importing flora and fauna bad.
3 FE2s here.
Hope your parts come in soon. I get grumpy when it’s too icey to ride.Can’t imagine not riding for more than 3 or 4 days.
We came out of the first Depression a better and wiser people, maybe we’ll do the same this time.
I love technology. I hate the way the “new” stuff becomes the “end-all and be-all”. Then we’re forced into using it because the other options disappear.
What I fear the ultimate extinction will be is face to face human intereaction. We’re growing poorer by the second because of it.
Thanks for all the stuff to think about. Or to have nightmares over!
The following from the list that weigh on me most:
1. The Family Farm
4. Honey Bees
8. Wild Horses
15. The Swimming Hole
17. Ash Trees
19. Chesapeake Bay Blue Crabs
Lets move towards a better New Year!
The honey bee thing has been worrying me for a while, and i don’t think DVDs will last long. I love Netflix and now one can download some of their titles directly to the computer, so I wonder where that will lead… I put great faith in the Law of Unintended Consequences for many of our problems, though even that I doubt will get your Vespa fixed in a hurry. PS Triumph keeps most common spares in a US warehouse for quick delivery…another reason to consider that Scrambler. Sorry.
Happy New Year to you and yours.
I am Satheesh from India Having a hobby of HAM Radio wti the Call sign VU2WSM. While searching about HAM Radio news I reached your blog. A bit of interest in photography hooked me at your blog. Nice photos and articles…
Wish you all success…
Satheesh Menon
VU2WSM
That’s a pretty good list of “endangered things.”
I am not giving up my film cameras. It wouldn’t be worth my time to move them along. I saw on Ebay, yesterday, a Canon EOS 3 film camera (like mine) for sale at $279. I don’t think film will disappear. It will always be with us as an art form. Which is why I never plan to unload my Hasselblad!
Happy New Year, Steve, maybe I’ll make it up your way this year.
Brent
Tim: Glad to have you stop by. I think the coming months will be sort of dramatic and offer lots to talk about. The challenge will be to sort out what is real and what is just noise and misinformation.
Have a great New Year.
Doug K: I used to have a couple F3HP cameras like that. They were workhorses in their day. Sometimes you just need to say goodbye to things like that…
Anonymous: I know there is a lot of research going on with American Chestnut in West Virginia. The American Chestnut Foundation has some research plots there and I think their stated goal is to reintroduce American Chestnut as the dominant species in the Northeast forests. We have some of the resistant strains growing in plots here and they are impressive.
I hope you are right and we come out of the current financial troubles as a better and stronger people!
irondad: Technology does change things and I guess only time will tell whether it was good or bad.
As far as face-to-face goes I think you are right. But things change…
angelo: Your list is pretty close to mine. I haven’t seen a good swimming hole in years…
conchscooter: I called the dealer this morning and they told me the part came in and they installed it and were testing things now. So I hope to have it back soon. If I give up the Vespa it will probably be for no two-wheeled device in favor or more photography gear!
Satheesh: When I was a kid my uncle was a ham radio operator and I was fascinated by the whole deal. For years I used to look at the Allied Equipment catalogs and dream about getting a ham radio. Never went as far to learn Morse code though.
Can you do Morse code?
Brent: I think I am going to abandon film all together. I have done what I wanted to with it and not what I am interested in pursuing will better be served in digital. That means a lot of new stuff though– computer, printer. I have my eye on the Epson 2880 right now!
Well Steve, same problems with nearly extincted professions, animals, plants, and especially some good ways of life…Even our language is becoming poorer and poorer, many beautiful Flemisch (Dutch) words are getting lost in time, which is a real bad loss I think.
Meantime, i’ve decided to become a blogger too.
This is my spot.
http://jeanvanhoof.blogspot.com/
Greetings from Mol, Flanders, Belgium.
Poached with credit
Jean: Congratulations on starting your blogging adventure. You’ll never know where it leads you…
Joe: Thanks!
Steve,
Don’t give up the Vespa. Camera gear now has the same half life as computers, because that’s what they are. If you can wait for the photo gear, it will become less expensive over time; but your chance to be out on the Vespa is invaluable.
Reading that list really makes one feel old. Things we have come to love and have lived with for so many years about to bite the dust. One thing grabbed me as my Dad at one time delivered milk house to house with a horse drawn buggy and my grandfather owned a dairy farm. My how life changes from year to year.
Steve,
Happy New Year to You and fellow scooterists. A biker friend said there are two types of people who ride motorcycles: Those who’ve dumped them, and those who will.
Well, I went down today. I didn’t get hurt, no damage to the bike, I just had to readjust/tighten the mirrors. I just have not yet mastered frozen dirt roads-with a new rear tire! I found myself going downhill backwards, and thought using the front brake should slow me down. It did, just not perpendicular to the road surface. The next 16 miles into town were fine though-last 13 of it on paved roads (with bare/dry spots!). Be safe!
Joe EE: The half life of computers, cameras, and printers has a lot to do with why I am not thrilled to spend money on them. I saw my D200 become “obsolete” in a year. Or at least it could not deliver what a D700 could.
It’s those thoughts that make film and the darkroom look good.
As far as the Vespa goes it looks good still.
Heinz N Frenchie: The farm up the road has a wagon in their dairy store that used to deliver the milk — back in the 1930’s. When I first came to town back in 1972 we still had home milk delivery from 3 dairies that continued into the 1980s.
And there is one farm that still will deliver milk. Not sure how they can afford to do that… Must be organic or something. Magic maybe…
Bob O: It’s a helpless feeling when the tires slide and nothing seems to help. Glad you are ok. Be careful out there!