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	Comments on: Weather and the Calculated Risk	</title>
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	<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/</link>
	<description>Exploring life on a Vespa, Royal Enfield Himalayan, Honda Trail 125, and a Kawasaki W650</description>
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		<title>
		By: irondad		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2824</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[irondad]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 02:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2824</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Gary,&lt;br /&gt;Delighted to see you&#039;re still hanging around.  Can&#039;t totally reform, can you? :)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Steve,&lt;br /&gt;I totally respect your decision.  You shared some really wise words in the process.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It&#039;s vital for us to see what&#039;s really there.  The actual truth and not information that&#039;s colored by our preconceived notions.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I&#039;ll bet you were pretty tired by the time you got home, though.  It&#039;s amazing how much riding in bad conditions takes out of us.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;You&#039;ve matured greatly as a rider, Grasshopper.  Just don&#039;t forget to have fun, too!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gary,<br />Delighted to see you&#8217;re still hanging around.  Can&#8217;t totally reform, can you? 🙂</p>
<p>Steve,<br />I totally respect your decision.  You shared some really wise words in the process.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s vital for us to see what&#8217;s really there.  The actual truth and not information that&#8217;s colored by our preconceived notions.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;ll bet you were pretty tired by the time you got home, though.  It&#8217;s amazing how much riding in bad conditions takes out of us.</p>
<p>You&#8217;ve matured greatly as a rider, Grasshopper.  Just don&#8217;t forget to have fun, too!</p>
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		By: Steve Williams		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2823</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve Williams]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 01:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2823</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Jack:  I want to just keep the experience locked away for emergencies and wait for dry roads before riding again.  I don&#039;t mind the cold but no need to practice anymore in the slippery stuff.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;And my wife and I were just looking at a cabin for sale a couple miles upstream from where the Vespa was in the picture.  We were trying to imagine life in the woods...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Orin:  Way upwards of 450 in my case.  Everything you wrote is right on target on how to manage slippery roads.  Someday I am going to get out to that city of yours and go for a ride!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Harv:  I&#039;m always misinterpreting but I didn&#039;t find anything wrong with what you wrote.  It just got my brain a turning...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Gary:  Great to hear from you!  I was looking at Rush Hour Rambling over the weekend and wondering how you were doing.  I sent you a message at the old address I had.  Hopefully it still works and you&#039;ll get back to me.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cliff:  I certainly understand the pull to soldier on but I&#039;ve gotten to the stage where I feel content in where my skills are and will file them away for emergencies only.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;At least that&#039;s the plan right now.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jack:  I want to just keep the experience locked away for emergencies and wait for dry roads before riding again.  I don&#8217;t mind the cold but no need to practice anymore in the slippery stuff.</p>
<p>And my wife and I were just looking at a cabin for sale a couple miles upstream from where the Vespa was in the picture.  We were trying to imagine life in the woods&#8230;</p>
<p>Orin:  Way upwards of 450 in my case.  Everything you wrote is right on target on how to manage slippery roads.  Someday I am going to get out to that city of yours and go for a ride!</p>
<p>Harv:  I&#8217;m always misinterpreting but I didn&#8217;t find anything wrong with what you wrote.  It just got my brain a turning&#8230;</p>
<p>Gary:  Great to hear from you!  I was looking at Rush Hour Rambling over the weekend and wondering how you were doing.  I sent you a message at the old address I had.  Hopefully it still works and you&#8217;ll get back to me.</p>
<p>Cliff:  I certainly understand the pull to soldier on but I&#8217;ve gotten to the stage where I feel content in where my skills are and will file them away for emergencies only.  </p>
<p>At least that&#8217;s the plan right now.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Cliff Yankovich		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2822</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cliff Yankovich]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2822</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Interesting report and replies. It is all good as long as you are not endangering anyone but yourself, eh? I find it oddly rewarding to &quot;beat the weather&quot; sometimes and other times I just let the weather win and take the RAV4 to work.&lt;br /&gt;Last Saturday was one of those I wanna beat the weather days and I soldiered on in the 4 inches of snow - took me 50 minutes to ride the 11 miles to the store. But I learned some stuff, stayed upright and lived to fight another day!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting report and replies. It is all good as long as you are not endangering anyone but yourself, eh? I find it oddly rewarding to &#8220;beat the weather&#8221; sometimes and other times I just let the weather win and take the RAV4 to work.<br />Last Saturday was one of those I wanna beat the weather days and I soldiered on in the 4 inches of snow &#8211; took me 50 minutes to ride the 11 miles to the store. But I learned some stuff, stayed upright and lived to fight another day!</p>
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		<title>
		By: gary		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2821</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gary]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 03:49:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2821</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Nice ride, Steve. You brought back memories of my winter scooter adventures. I&#039;m really happy you decided to continue where I left off. Family life and obligations prevent me from doing that nowadays. Send me an email sometime, if you still have my address. Otherwise, you can still reach me at the blog. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Ride well,&lt;br /&gt;=gc=]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice ride, Steve. You brought back memories of my winter scooter adventures. I&#8217;m really happy you decided to continue where I left off. Family life and obligations prevent me from doing that nowadays. Send me an email sometime, if you still have my address. Otherwise, you can still reach me at the blog. </p>
<p>Ride well,<br />=gc=</p>
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		<title>
		By: American Scooterist Blog		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2820</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[American Scooterist Blog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2009 19:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2820</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It sounds like you mistook what I wrote.  My only thought was that you deduced your own conditions and ability and had the confidence and skill to get home safely.  Didn&#039;t mean anything else by it.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Harv]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It sounds like you mistook what I wrote.  My only thought was that you deduced your own conditions and ability and had the confidence and skill to get home safely.  Didn&#8217;t mean anything else by it.</p>
<p>Harv</p>
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		<title>
		By: Orin		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2819</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Orin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2009 02:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2819</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Keep in mind, traction under these conditions is about the weight of the vehicle and the tread on the tires. A Vespa GTS weighs in at 326 lbs. Add the weight of the rider and any cargo, and you&#039;ll be packing upwards of 450 lbs. of Road-Hugging Weight. I&#039;ve found the original-equipment Savas have surprising traction in thin layers of loose snow or sleet.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Of course, you go more slowly; under conditions like you describe, I&#039;m more afraid of the actions of impatient drivers (esp. passing too closely) than my ability to navigate the bike through the conditions at hand. The racing experience comes into play here--you want your control inputs to be deliberate and economical, and you don&#039;t want to be surprised, so you look way ahead.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Luckily, living in the city means I have many, many alternate routes...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;__Orin&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.scootinoldskool.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Scootin&#039; Old Skool&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Keep in mind, traction under these conditions is about the weight of the vehicle and the tread on the tires. A Vespa GTS weighs in at 326 lbs. Add the weight of the rider and any cargo, and you&#8217;ll be packing upwards of 450 lbs. of Road-Hugging Weight. I&#8217;ve found the original-equipment Savas have surprising traction in thin layers of loose snow or sleet.</p>
<p>Of course, you go more slowly; under conditions like you describe, I&#8217;m more afraid of the actions of impatient drivers (esp. passing too closely) than my ability to navigate the bike through the conditions at hand. The racing experience comes into play here&#8211;you want your control inputs to be deliberate and economical, and you don&#8217;t want to be surprised, so you look way ahead.</p>
<p>Luckily, living in the city means I have many, many alternate routes&#8230;</p>
<p>__Orin<br /><a href="http://www.scootinoldskool.com/" rel="nofollow">Scootin&#8217; Old Skool</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Jack Riepe		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2818</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jack Riepe]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:42:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2818</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dear Sir;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Not for me. The top heavy nature of my rig would have had me on the ground in two seconds flat. I wouldn&#039;t trust my legs to hold bike upright either. But I have two friends who have managed it. I guess it takes a great deal more confidence thn I have, or less experience with a bike on top of me. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Great pictures as usual. I am determined to get more pictures like yours... Shots that calm the soul. &lt;br /&gt;I went back to look at the previous post with your scooter alongside the creek. I just like the whole idea of it.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fondest regards,&lt;br /&gt;Jack&lt;br /&gt;Twisted Roads]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Sir;</p>
<p>Not for me. The top heavy nature of my rig would have had me on the ground in two seconds flat. I wouldn&#8217;t trust my legs to hold bike upright either. But I have two friends who have managed it. I guess it takes a great deal more confidence thn I have, or less experience with a bike on top of me. </p>
<p>Great pictures as usual. I am determined to get more pictures like yours&#8230; Shots that calm the soul. <br />I went back to look at the previous post with your scooter alongside the creek. I just like the whole idea of it.</p>
<p>Fondest regards,<br />Jack<br />Twisted Roads</p>
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		<title>
		By: Steve Williams		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2817</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve Williams]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2009 12:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2817</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Antonio: The pictures show details but not the whole story.  I wish I would have posted a picture of the road so you would have seen the conditions there.  I believe that often bad weather masks our ability to see the riding conditions.  Our brain jumps to &quot;oh now, snow, ice, terrible&quot; without really looking at the road itself.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;That said you still need to, as you rightly point out, be honest in assessing your own ability.  We all have limits and I certainly have mine.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Harv:  More chance that I&#039;ll succeed than fail.  That&#039;s what I do.  The problem is the percentages for each and how accurate my predictions are.  Would you ride somewhere if you believed your chances of success were 60 percent?  Or 70??  That&#039;s what is occupying my thoughts as I reconsider this ride.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Baron&#039;s Life:  You probably aren&#039;t the only one who thinks this is nuts to ride in.  All I can say is that the roads yielded more traction than the pictures may indicate -- a combination of temperature, the quality and amount of slush, and a knowledge of what I could do with the Vespa on my specific ride home.  I&#039;ll tell you that my biggest concern was not my own ability to keep the rubber side down, but rather the other vehicles abilities to stay in their lanes and not try to rush when conditions weren&#039;t at their best.  Another risk to consider.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Heinz N Frenchie:  I&#039;ll be careful.  Don&#039;t look for anymore rides like this one.  I&#039;m going to apply a lot wider margin of error to the weather forecasts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;John Ashford: Riding in conditions like this find me hyperaware.  Everything is running.  It isn&#039;t a matter of courage or fortitude.  But you&#039;re right, in the future I need to err in a different direction.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Joe:  You raise an issue that will be the subject of a future post --- how much risk to take.  If I have any concern about my posts it is that someone will think they should be doing this.  I don&#039;t.  I believe that as I gain more experience I will make fewer errors in judgment regarding weather and not have to make the decisions like the one in this post.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;cpa3485:  Thanks for your kind words.  I talked with someone yesterday and they felt that &quot;yeah, you calculated the risk but came up with the wrong answer&quot;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I need to consider that statement carefully.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Antonio: The pictures show details but not the whole story.  I wish I would have posted a picture of the road so you would have seen the conditions there.  I believe that often bad weather masks our ability to see the riding conditions.  Our brain jumps to &#8220;oh now, snow, ice, terrible&#8221; without really looking at the road itself.</p>
<p>That said you still need to, as you rightly point out, be honest in assessing your own ability.  We all have limits and I certainly have mine.</p>
<p>Harv:  More chance that I&#8217;ll succeed than fail.  That&#8217;s what I do.  The problem is the percentages for each and how accurate my predictions are.  Would you ride somewhere if you believed your chances of success were 60 percent?  Or 70??  That&#8217;s what is occupying my thoughts as I reconsider this ride.</p>
<p>Baron&#8217;s Life:  You probably aren&#8217;t the only one who thinks this is nuts to ride in.  All I can say is that the roads yielded more traction than the pictures may indicate &#8212; a combination of temperature, the quality and amount of slush, and a knowledge of what I could do with the Vespa on my specific ride home.  I&#8217;ll tell you that my biggest concern was not my own ability to keep the rubber side down, but rather the other vehicles abilities to stay in their lanes and not try to rush when conditions weren&#8217;t at their best.  Another risk to consider.</p>
<p>Heinz N Frenchie:  I&#8217;ll be careful.  Don&#8217;t look for anymore rides like this one.  I&#8217;m going to apply a lot wider margin of error to the weather forecasts.</p>
<p>John Ashford: Riding in conditions like this find me hyperaware.  Everything is running.  It isn&#8217;t a matter of courage or fortitude.  But you&#8217;re right, in the future I need to err in a different direction.</p>
<p>Joe:  You raise an issue that will be the subject of a future post &#8212; how much risk to take.  If I have any concern about my posts it is that someone will think they should be doing this.  I don&#8217;t.  I believe that as I gain more experience I will make fewer errors in judgment regarding weather and not have to make the decisions like the one in this post.</p>
<p>cpa3485:  Thanks for your kind words.  I talked with someone yesterday and they felt that &#8220;yeah, you calculated the risk but came up with the wrong answer&#8221;.</p>
<p>I need to consider that statement carefully.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cpa3485		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2816</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cpa3485]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 23:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2816</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Those are awesome photos. You really demonstrate in pictures and words the decision making process.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Well done!!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those are awesome photos. You really demonstrate in pictures and words the decision making process.</p>
<p>Well done!!</p>
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		<title>
		By: Joe		</title>
		<link>https://scooterinthesticks.com/2009/02/weather-and-calculated-risk/#comment-2815</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 22:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://69.195.124.229/~scootet3/?p=447#comment-2815</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sigh!  I wonder if I&#039;ll ever have that &quot;enough experience&quot; because when there&#039;s a doubt or question about the weather I predictably wimp out on the side of caution.  I still don&#039;t even take the car out when the weather&#039;s bad unless it&#039;s a matter of dire necessity.  In my line of work the day is usually canceled before I have to venture out so I&#039;ve yet to cut any serious snow teeth on four wheels, never mind two.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;- Joe at &lt;a href=&quot;http://scootindavalley.blogspot.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Scootin&#039; da Valley&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sigh!  I wonder if I&#8217;ll ever have that &#8220;enough experience&#8221; because when there&#8217;s a doubt or question about the weather I predictably wimp out on the side of caution.  I still don&#8217;t even take the car out when the weather&#8217;s bad unless it&#8217;s a matter of dire necessity.  In my line of work the day is usually canceled before I have to venture out so I&#8217;ve yet to cut any serious snow teeth on four wheels, never mind two.</p>
<p>&#8211; Joe at <a href="http://scootindavalley.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">Scootin&#8217; da Valley</a></p>
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